A Brief Analysis of China's Walnut Inshell Exports
2025 marks a milestone year for China’s walnut export industry. According to data released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China’s walnut exports nearly doubled in the 2024/25 season, surpassing the United States to become the world’s largest walnut exporter. This historic breakthrough signifies a fundamental shift in China’s position within the global walnut trade landscape.
I. Overall Export Scale and Global Position
According to USDA forecasts for the 2025/26 season, global walnut production (in-shell basis) is projected to reach 2.7 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Within this total:
China maintains its position as the world’s largest walnut producer, with output stable at 1.55 million tons.
United States production rebounds to 644,000 tons, an increase of approximately 100,000 tons year-on-year.
European Union production is estimated at 139,000 tons.
Turkey production declines to 47,000 tons.
Ukraine production is estimated at 100,000 tons.
Global walnut exports are expected to reach a record 1.22 million tons. China nearly doubled its exports in the 2024/25 season, overtaking the United States as the world’s largest walnut exporter. U.S. exports are forecast to increase to 400,000 tons, while Ukraine’s exports are expected to reach 35,000 tons, a 67% year-on-year increase. Looking at monthly data, China’s in-shell walnut export value peaked in November 2025 at RMB 665 million, the highest level since records began in 2015.
II. Analysis of Key Export Markets
The European Union market has become the biggest highlight of China’s walnut export growth. From January to September 2025, EU imports of walnut kernels reached 116,493 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, with an import value of €720 million. China’s walnut kernel exports to the EU demonstrated exceptional performance:
China’s exports to the EU reached 24,135 tons, a 269% year-on-year increase.
China’s market share in the EU surged to 20.7%.
U.S. exports to the EU were 54,948 tons, a 14.7% year-on-year decline.
The U.S. market share in the EU declined to 47%.
Notably, China has surpassed Chile and Ukraine to become the second-largest supplier in the EU market, trailing only the United States. Among major EU importing countries, Germany ranked first with 46,710 tons (accounting for 40% of the total), followed by Spain and the Netherlands.
Other Key Markets
Based on export flow data from August to September 2025, China’s in-shell walnut exports were primarily destined for:
Asian markets: UAE, Iraq, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey
North African countries: Morocco
European markets: United Kingdom, Germany
III. Analysis of Major Exporting Provinces
In September 2025, provincial export performance for in-shell walnuts was as follows:
Xinjiang ranked first in China’s walnut exports, with exports of 8,299,969 kg valued at $17,560,316 USD. As the core production region for China’s walnut exports, Xinjiang contributes over 40% of the country’s total in-shell walnut exports, offering premium varieties including
185 Walnut Inshell,
Xingfu Walnut Inshell,
33 Walnut Inshell, and
Yunnan Walnut Inshell.
Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, and Shanxi also serve as important export bases. Data from August 2025 shows Xinjiang exported 1,768,000 kg valued at $4.18 million USD, also ranking first nationally.
IV. Price Trend Analysis
Walnut export prices remained at high levels throughout 2025. According to German media Mundus Agri, with 2024 inventories largely cleared, current selling prices remain elevated. Quotes for the Xinjiang 185 Walnut Inshell range between $2,000–$2,100 USD per ton.
From January to September 2025, the average price of walnut kernels imported by the EU was €6.18 per kilogram, a substantial year-on-year increase of 41%. This upward price trend is closely tied to shifts in global supply patterns—both Chinese and U.S. export prices have risen significantly, with U.S. prices increasing by over 50% between September 2024 and July 2025.
V. Industry Characteristics and Trend Insights
Chinese walnut producers exhibit different export market orientations compared to their U.S. counterparts. A primary reason is that China has not widely planted varieties such as Chandler or Hartley, which produce lighter-colored, less bitter kernels. This distinction shapes China’s strategic focus on markets including the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia, and certain European markets, while the United States maintains its advantage in the light-colored walnut kernel segment.
With extremely low carryover inventories from the 2024/25 season, the new production season began with nearly zero stock levels. This situation is directly reflected in export prices. Buyers may consider timing their purchases as supply volumes increase.
In 2025, China not only overtook the United States in total export volume to become the world’s largest walnut exporter, but also achieved an explosive 269% growth in the EU market—traditionally a stronghold for U.S. walnuts. This demonstrates that China’s comprehensive competitiveness in terms of quality, pricing, and supply chain stability is gaining broad recognition in the international market. The competitiveness of China’s walnut exports continues to strengthen.
Summary: Key Characteristics of China’s 2025 Walnut Inshell Exports
✅ Global Position Upgrade: Overtook the United States as the world’s largest walnut exporter
✅ Explosive EU Growth: Exports to the EU surged 269%, capturing 20.7% market share
✅ Xinjiang Dominates Exports: Xinjiang contributes over 40% of China’s total in-shell walnut export volume
✅ High Price Levels: Xinjiang 185 variety quoted at $2,000–$2,100 USD per ton
✅ Tight Supply: Low carryover inventories supporting prices; new season walnuts are being marketed
Hebei HuaDai Group: Your Trusted Chinese Walnut Partner
As a key player in China’s walnut industry, Hebei HuaDai Group leverages its resources from self-operated walnut orchards in premium production regions including Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Hebei. Through our ISO and HACCP certified modern facilities, we consistently deliver high-quality Walnut Inshell, Walnut Kernels, and related products to global customers. We remain committed to closely monitoring market dynamics, upholding stable quality, and providing professional service—supporting Chinese walnuts in achieving even greater success on the international stage.
